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Meeting & Course Intelligence

Chepstow Races – Sunday 11 October 2026

Sunday 11 October 2026

13:27–16:57 · 7 races · Hurdles / National Hunt Flat

Course overview

Races analysed69

Favourite strike rate33.3%

Favourite place rate63.8%

Race dates 2026-07-14 to 2026-10-11. Settled stored results only.

Course patterns

Official starting-price favourites by race context in the selected period.

Distance bands

5f6/11 fav wins · 54.5% · +18.9% ROI11 races · 14 favourite stakes · Moderate evidence
6f2/10 fav wins · 20.0% · -57.7% ROI10 races · 12 favourite stakes · Moderate evidence
7f2/10 fav wins · 20.0% · -46.3% ROI10 races · Moderate evidence
1m3/8 fav wins · 37.5% · +0.9% ROI8 races · Small sample
1m2f1/5 fav wins · 20.0% · -56.0% ROI5 races · Small sample
2m5/11 fav wins · 45.5% · +28.0% ROI11 races · Moderate evidence
2m3f2/7 fav wins · 28.6% · -21.4% ROI7 races · Small sample

Field sizes

1–7 runners12/33 fav wins · 36.4% · -23.1% ROI33 races · 38 favourite stakes · Stronger evidence
8–10 runners8/20 fav wins · 40.0% · +6.1% ROI20 races · 21 favourite stakes · Stronger evidence
11+ runners3/16 fav wins · 18.8% · -44.1% ROI16 races · 17 favourite stakes · Moderate evidence

Race categories

Handicap14/42 fav wins · 33.3% · -13.6% ROI42 races · 47 favourite stakes · Stronger evidence
Maiden1/8 fav wins · 12.5% · -82.5% ROI8 races · 9 favourite stakes · Small sample
Novice5/10 fav wins · 50.0% · -11.5% ROI10 races · Moderate evidence
Other3/9 fav wins · 33.3% · +0.0% ROI9 races · 10 favourite stakes · Small sample

Favourite draw bands

Low draws3/15 fav wins · 20.0% · -48.2% ROI15 races · Moderate evidence
Middle draws3/13 fav wins · 23.1% · -33.7% ROI13 races · Moderate evidence
High draws9/24 fav wins · 37.5% · -11.9% ROI24 races · 25 favourite stakes · Stronger evidence

Leading trainers

Name	Wins/runs	Strike rate	ROI
David Evans	5/13	38.5%	+174.0%
Dan Skelton	5/29	17.2%	+112.9%
Grace Harris	5/36	13.9%	-7.4%
John & Rhys Flint	4/19	21.1%	+37.9%
Jonjo & A J O'Neill	3/6	50.0%	+75.0%

Leading jockeys

Name	Wins/runs	Strike rate	ROI
Sam Twiston-Davies	4/11	36.4%	+66.7%
Harry Skelton	4/16	25.0%	+73.4%
Ashley Lewis	4/20	20.0%	+61.9%
Ciaran Gethings	3/8	37.5%	+293.8%
Taylor Fisher	3/12	25.0%	+50.0%

Course Angles

Open in Stat Finder

Trainer angles

Trainer: Dan Skelton

5 wins from 29 runs · 17.2% strike rate · +112.9% ROI

Stronger evidence · Course record in selected period

Trainer: John & Rhys Flint

4 wins from 19 runs · 21.1% strike rate · +37.9% ROI

Moderate evidence · Course record in selected period

Trainer: David Evans

5 wins from 13 runs · 38.5% strike rate · +174.0% ROI

Moderate evidence · Course record in selected period

Jockey angles

Jockey: Ashley Lewis

4 wins from 20 runs · 20.0% strike rate · +61.9% ROI

Stronger evidence · Course record in selected period

Jockey: Harry Skelton

4 wins from 16 runs · 25.0% strike rate · +73.4% ROI

Moderate evidence · Course record in selected period

Jockey: Taylor Fisher

3 wins from 12 runs · 25.0% strike rate · +50.0% ROI

Moderate evidence · Course record in selected period

Race-condition angles

1–7 runners

33 wins from 186 runs · 17.7% strike rate · +6.8% ROI

Stronger evidence · Field size within the selected course population

Handicap · 10

5 wins from 30 runs · 16.7% strike rate · +29.0% ROI

Stronger evidence · Handicap; 10

Non-handicap · 5

4 wins from 24 runs · 16.7% strike rate · +1.7% ROI

Stronger evidence · Non-handicap; 5

Meeting races

13:27DragonBet / EBF Mares' 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle (EBF Mares' NH Novices' Qualifier) (GBB Race)

Top PickPrincess Day8/11 14:02DragonBet Daily Extra Place Handicap Hurdle

Top PickLittle Pi15/2 14:37DragonBet / EBF 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle (Qualifier) (GBB Race)

Top PickMwabani5/2 15:12DragonBet Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Hurdle

Top PickWest Orchard12/1 15:47DragonBet Cefnogi Rasio Ceffylau Cymreig Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race)

Top PickMatty's Getaway7/2 16:22DragonBet Born In Wales Seniors' Handicap Hurdle

Top PickHaas Boy10/1 16:57Wasdell Group Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)

Top PickOld Coast Road7/4

My Picks